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The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) on Tuesday, March 19, reported that the water level of Lake Kariba is declining, which is in contrast to its usual hydrological behaviour during this time of the year.
The ZRA attributes this phenomenon to global El Niño weather conditions. El Niño disrupts normal weather patterns, affecting precipitation and river inflow.
The headwaters of the Zambezi River have experienced reduced rainfall activity, leading to diminished inflow into Lake Kariba. Consequently, the recorded flows are below historical averages.
The Chavuma gauging station, situated in Zambia’s North-Western province, monitors river flows as the Zambezi River enters Zambia from Angola. Recent data indicates a slow increase in river flows at this station. However, it remains below the levels observed during the same period last year.
According to ZRA, on March 06 2023, the river flow at Chavuma gauging station was 992m3/s on March 06 2023, whereas on March 06 2024, it was 357m3/s. On March 19, 2023, it was 924m3/s, compared to 371m3/s recorded today, March 19, 2024. ZRA said:
<blockquote>
The Zambezi River flow recorded on 19th March 2024 at Victoria Falls has receded from that recorded on 6th March 2024 as indicated below.
Further, the obtaining flows are significantly lower than those recorded on the same date last year.
</blockquote>
On March 06 2023, the river flow at Victoria Falls Gauging Station (Nanas Farm Gauging Station) was 2,569m3/s on March 06 2023, whereas on March 06 2024, it was 794m3/s. On March 19, 2023, it was 2,510m3/s , compared to 751m3/s recorded today, March 19, 2024.
The impacts of low water levels at Lake Kariba include reduced power generation which results in increased load shedding; fluctuations disrupt habitats, breeding grounds, and aquatic life; ships, boats, and ferries face challenges due to shallow waters; and low water levels impact recreational activities such as fishing, boating, and wildlife safaris.
ZRA has also given a detailed explanation of the concepts of Live Storage and Dead Storage at Kariba Dam. It said:
<blockquote>
The water from the Kariba Reservoir is transferred into each of the two power stations for power generation purposes by intakes that are located within the reservoir and near the dam wall.
Owing to the location of the intakes in terms of their height when referenced with the base of the reservoir, the waters of the Kariba Reservoir are split into two, namely, water that is situated below the height of the intakes, which is referred to as Dead Storage, and water that is located above the height of the intakes, which is referred to as Live Storage.
Dead Storage, by virtue of being below the intakes, cannot enter the intakes and hence cannot be used for power generation, while Live Storage, by virtue of being above the intakes, enters the power stations through the intakes and hence can be used for power generation.
It is possible to have a scenario where Live Storage can be completely exhausted while Dead Storage continues to be available in the reservoir.
</blockquote>
Currently, Kariba Dam has a Live Storage of 9.17 BCM which represents 14.16% of the possible 65 BCM of water. ZRA further explained:
<blockquote>
The Kariba Dam Reservoir at full capacity can store 181 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) of water. Of this total amount, 116 BCM would be Dead Storage while 65 BCM would be Live Storage. The Dead Storage remains constant while the maximum possible Live Storage is 65 BCM.
However, the actual Live Storage amount may be less depending on several factors including the occurrence of rainfall which influences the level and volume of Zambezi River inflow into the Lake, evaporation from the Lake and utilization of the obtaining Live Storage by the two Power Stations.
These factors influence the volume of available Live Storage in the Kariba Dam’s Reservoir (Lake Kariba).
Currently, the Reservoir at the obtaining lake level of 477.54 meters above Mean Sea Level has a Live Storage of 9.17 BCM which represents 14.16% of the possible 65 BCM of water.
</blockquote>
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Pindula News

"Kariba Dam Water Level Is Falling When It Should Be Rising"

The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) has directed Zimbabwe and Zambia’s power utilities, ZESA Holdings, and ZESCO Limited to maintain average power production at 214MW until the end of March 2024.
ZRA reduced the water allocation for power generation to the two power utilities by 47%, from 30 billion cubic metres (BCM) in 2023 to 16 BCM in 2024.
In a statement, ZRA said a hydrological review in the coming weeks could result in an increment, reduction or the keeping of the prevailing 8 BCM allocation. ZRA said:
<blockquote>
Given that the outcome of the rainfall forecast is generally below normal, the Authority has maintained the 16 BCM water allocation over the first quarter of 2024, providing for a combined annual average power production of 428MW, shared equally.
Based on the water allocation of 8BCM per power utility, translating to an average power production of 214MW per Utility to the end of March 2024 when the 1st Quarter 2024 hydrological review falls due as per the standing operational framework for Kariba dam reservoir operations.
The hydrological review will among other factors considering the actual performance of the 2023/2024 rainfall season and the resulting inflows into the lake over the first quarter of the year 2024.
The results of the hydrological simulations could result in an increment, reduction or the keeping of the prevailing 2024 water allocation as is.
</blockquote>
ZRA also said to date, the Kariba Catchment has recorded below-normal rainfall due to the persisting effects of El Niño weather conditions.
It warned that there is a possibility that Kariba inflows this rainy season will be one of the lowest on record
ZRA urged the power utilities to adhere strictly to their respective water allocation thresholds to sustain generation to the end of the year.
The Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) has been generating between 500 MW and 650 MW at Kariba Hydro over the past few weeks, but this Thursday, 07 March, generation had been reduced to a paltry 300 MW.
This week, most parts of the country have been spending up to 15 hours without electricity after weeks of relatively constant power supply.
Zimbabwe’s power demand stands at 2 100MW, yet today, ZPC was generating 684 MW from Hwange, and 300 MW from Kariba, with IPPs producing 28 MW to give a total of 1 012 MW.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Kariba Power Generation Slashed To 214 MW

ZESA Holdings is managing its water allocation from the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) for power generation at Kariba South Bank Hydro Power Plant to ensure that it does not exhaust its share prematurely.
This was said by ZESA consultant (international business) Cletus Nyachowe during <a href="https://www.sundaymail.co.zw/hwange-units-1-6-refurb-begins">an interview</a> with State media. He said:
<blockquote>
The Zambezi River Authority, which manages water in Kariba Dam and allocates a certain amount of water to ZPC and ZESCO of Zambia for power generation, has given us the latitude to vary our power output from Kariba on condition that our overall water condition is maintained within its set limits.
Another point you may want to note is that when you see us generating between 800MW and 892MW at Kariba, that power output is probably on for an hour or less.
During the day, it is regulated up and down as and when required. So, normally that maximum output is only generated during peak demand periods.
We are operating Kariba very carefully and within our water limits.
</blockquote>
In January this year, ZRA announced plans to review the Tripartite Water Purchase Agreement to stiffen penalties against the over-utilisation of Lake Kariba and Zambezi River water.
ZRA Chief Executive, Munyaradzi Munodawafa said the Council of Ministers Resolution needed to be fully implemented to effectively regulate the utilisation of water.
He made the remarks during his visit to the Kariba Dam Rehabilitation Project site.
In November 2022, ZRA which runs the Kariba Dam <a href="https://zero.pindula.co.zw/severe-load-shedding-looms-as-zra-tells-zesa-to-shut-down-kariba-power-station/">ordered ZPC to cut electricity generation by half owing to low water levels.</a>
ZRA which is jointly owned by Zimbabwe and Zambia told ZPC that the dam “no longer has any usable water to continue undertaking power generation operations.”
The directive saw ZESA Holdings implementing a tough load-shedding regime that saw consumers being plunged into darkness for at least 20 hours per day.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Zambezi River Authority Set Limits On Water Usage At Lake Kariba

The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) which is responsible for the allocation of water used by Zimbabwe’s Kariba South and Zambia’s Kariba North Power Stations has provided an update on river flows along the Zambezi catchment. In a statement seen by Pindula News, ZRA said flows have been increasing as the rainy season progresses. Reads the update issued on Wednesday 25 January 2023:
<h2>UPDATE ON RIVER FLOWS ALONG THE ZAMBEZI CATCHMENT (25 Jan 2023)</h2>
The hydrometric network used for the control and day-to-day operations of the Kariba reservoir comprise of thirteen stations where water levels are monitored daily. Flow measurements are carried out at eight of these stations which include the Victoria Falls, one of the key stations on the Zambezi River. Coincidentally, the maximum flow recorded at Victoria Falls was during the early construction phase of Kariba Dam in March 1958 at 10,000 cubic metres per second. The lowest flows recorded to date at Victoria Falls were during the 1995/96 season which had an annual mean flow of 390 cubic metres per second, whereas the Long Term Mean Annual flow at Victoria Falls is 1,100 cubic metres per second.
FLOWS AT SELECTED STATIONS:
1. CHAVUMA
Zambezi River flows at Chavuma have been increasing as the rainy season progresses.
Recorded flow on 25th January 2023 – 2,219 m3/s.
Recorded flow on 25th January 2022 – 824m3/s.
2. NANA’S FARM
The Zambezi River flows at Nana’s Farm, located some 33km upstream of Victoria Falls (typically the same reach) are steadily increasing.
Recorded flow on 25th January 2023 – 772m3/s.
Recorded flow on 25th January 2022 – 748m3/s.
3. NGONYE
Flows at Ngonye are rising due to increased rainfall activity.
Recorded flow on 25th January 2023 – 913m3/s.
Recorded flow on 25th January 2022 – 721m3/s.
4. VICTORIA FALLS/BIG TREE
The Zambezi River flows at Victoria Falls are steadily increasing, as the rain season progresses.
Recorded flow on 25th January 2023 – 772m3/s.
Recorded flow on 25th January 2022 – 748m3/s.
<h2><a href="https://zero.pindula.co.zw/">More Pindula News</a></h2>

Update On River Flows Along The Zambezi Catchment - 25 Jan 2023

The Kariba Lake levels have been rising steadily due to an increase in local rainfall activity on and around the lake.
The Zambezi River flows at Victoria Falls are steadily increasing, as the rainy season progresses, the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) has said.
As of 16 January 2023, ZRA said Kariba Lake level was 475.83m (2.34% usable storage), compared to 478.45m (20.58% usable storage) recorded on the same date last year.
Towards the end of 2022, ZRA advised Zimbabwe and Zambia’s power utilities to drastically cut electricity generation to due critically low dam levels.
ZRA carries out Zambezi River measurements at eight stations which include Victoria Falls, one of the key stations on the Zambezi River. Some of the other stations are Chavuma, Nana’s Farm, and Ngonye.
On 16 January 2023, ZRA gave an update on the river flows along the Zambezi catchment. Flows at selected stations were as follows:
<blockquote>
<h2>1. CHAVUMA</h2>
Zambezi River flows at Chavuma have been increasing steadily as the rainy season progresses, closing the period under review at 684m3/s on 13th January 2023. The flow recorded last year on the same date was 526m3/s.
<h2>2. NANA’S FARM</h2>
The Zambezi River flows at Nana’s Farm, located some 33km upstream of Victoria Falls (typically the same reach) are steadily increasing, closing the period under review at 579m3/s on 13th January 2023. The flow observed on the same date last year was 585m3/s.
<h2>3. NGONYE</h2>
Flows at Ngonye are rising due to localised rainfall activity, recording 672m3/s at the end of the review period on 13th January 2023. The flow recorded last year on the same date was 592m3/s.
<h2>4. VICTORIA FALLS</h2>
The Zambezi River flows at Victoria Falls are steadily increasing, as the rain season progresses, closing the period under review at 579m3/s on 13th January 2023. The flow observed on the same date last year was 585m3/s.
</blockquote>

Kariba Lake Levels Rise, Zambezi River Flows Increase

ZESA Holdings and its Zambian sister power utility, the Zambia Electricity Supply Commission ZESCO, will be allocated more water by the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) to increase their electricity generation next month.
For now, ZESA and ZESCO will maintain the combined average generation output at the Kariba hydro-power plant at 500MW.
This was said by ZRA chief executive officer Munyaradzi Munodawafa after Zambian Ministers and senior Government officials toured part of the Kariba complex on Wednesday, 11 January. Said Munodawafa:
<blockquote>
The two utilities (ZESCO Limited and ZPC) will maintain combined average generation output at Kariba at 500MW, that is, 250MW ZESCO and 250MW ZPC to the end of January 2023 after which they could increase to 400MW per power station as the flows of the mainstream Zambezi River further increase during both the months of February and March and into the second quarter of the year 2023.
</blockquote>
Munodawafa said the over-utilisation of water by utilities and poor performance of Kariba’s lower catchment rivers led to low water levels being recorded during the last quarter of the year 2022.
He said as of 11 January, the Kariba Lake level was at 475.78 (0.28m above the Minimum Operating Level-MOL of 475.5m). Added Munodawafa:
<blockquote>
Flows in the mainstream Zambezi River are expected to continue increasing going into February 2023.
Lake levels increasing and are projected to significantly increase by April 2023 in line with peak flows of mainstream Zambezi River.
The upper catchment of the Zambezi River is recording increased water levels.
</blockquote>
ZRA is a joint venture corporation owned by the governments of Zimbabwe and Zambia responsible for the management of the Zambezi River waters and the Kariba Dam complex.
The Kariba Dam complex comprises the dam wall and water storage reservoir and other associated ancillary facilities such as lake levels and river in-flows monitoring equipment.

ZRA To Release More Water For Kariba Power Generation

The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) says reduced water levels in Lake Kariba will allow the uninterrupted rehabilitation of the reservoir.
Water levels at the dam have dropped by more than 70 per cent over the 2021 levels and are trending towards record lows.
ZRA chief executive Munyaradzi Munodawafa said the Kariba Dam Rehabilitation Project is progressing well as reshaping of the plunge pool and refurbishment of the flood gates is best done when levels are low.
He added that the low water levels ensured that there would not be any need to open the spillway gates which would jeopardise the ongoing works. Said Munodawafa:
<blockquote>
It is worth noting that the water levels currently obtaining at Kariba are favourable to the smooth implementation of the rehabilitation works.
In this regard, the Authority will continue to closely monitor and optimise the water allocation for power generation operations to ensure uninterrupted implementation of the KDRP works together with the power generation operations while avoiding the need for spilling which has the potential to halt the works.
</blockquote>
Levels have receded to 6,04 billion cubic metres (BCM), dropping to within one and a half metres of usable water as of November 1.
On the same day in 2021, the reservoir had 20,47BCM which was 4,47 metres above the minimum operating level and 8 metres below the maximum level.
There is, however, a glimmer of hope as water flows on the Zambezi River are beginning to increase at Chavuma and Victoria Falls gauging stations. Said Munodawafa:
<blockquote>
… the catchment around Chavuma has now recorded some rainfall activity leading to a slight increase in the recorded flow.
The recorded flow on 1st November 2022 increased to 63m3/s. On 1st November 2021, the flows were slightly higher at 95 m3/s.
</blockquote>
The impact of the flows on water levels in the Lake will only begin to be felt in the first quarter of 2023 because it takes two months for the flows to reach the lake. | <a href="https://www.herald.co.zw/water-levels-drop-boon-for-kariba-rehab/">The Herald</a>

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