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Independent development economist Prosper Chitambara said President Emmerson Mnangagwa is under pressure to leave a legacy for himself as he is set to begin his second and final term as the Head of State.
Speaking to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/27/suffering-is-continuing-mnangagwa-declared-winner-in-zimbabwe-election">Al Jazeera</a> before the results of the Harmonised Elections held on 23 and 24 August were announced, Chitambara said Mnangagwa’s Second Term could be better than his first. He said:
<blockquote>
I think if ZANU PF wins, the party will be under a lot of pressure to make significant economic improvements.
He [Mnangagwa] will be under a lot of pressure to leave a legacy for himself given this will be his last term and this could be a good thing for the economy.
As such, his second term could be better than his first. That is the best-case scenario.
</blockquote>
Chitambara added that the worst-case scenario would be a continuation of the economic policies of the past five years of Mnangagwa’s administration.
Since Mnangagwa took over from the late Robert Mugabe in November 207 following a military coup, the Zimbabwe dollar has depreciated against the United States dollar owing to the unbridled printing of money.
Prices of goods are so high that ordinary people cannot afford them and the majority of Zimbabweans have been forced to take on some sort of menial work to survive.
Meanwhile, Taurai Gwatidzo, a Harare-based shoe cobbler told Al Jazeera that ZANU PF’s victory in the 2023 Harmonised Elections means that suffering will continue.
olo Zuma, a 37-year-old mother of three, said that she if ZANU PF wins she will become a sex worker to earn a living for her children.
On Saturday, ZEC declared ZANU PF candidate Emmerson Mnangagwa the winner with 2,350,711 votes which translates to 52.6%, while CCC’s Nelson Chamisa received 1 967 343 which translates to 44% of the total votes cast.
However, the opposition spokesperson Promise Mkwananzi said on X, previously known as Twitter, that the party rejected the results.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Pindula News

Mnangagwa's Second Term Could Be Better Than His First, Says Economist Chitambara

Local economic commentators say the end of year closure of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) foreign exchange auction for close to a month will not affect the market as most companies do not depend on the auction for their forex needs.
The RBZ on Monday announced that it was closing its weekly foreign exchange auction until 9 January 2023.
Speaking to NewsDay, economic commentator Gift Mugano said the closure of the RBZ auction will have no effect on the market. Mugano said:
<blockquote>
Mainstream imports by businesses are coming from companies’ own foreign currency generation at various levels.
Because of the dollarisation, companies are generating their own foreign currency through sales, they are self-sustaining.
In my view, I don’t see any effects of the closure of the auction system.
</blockquote>
Another economic analyst Prosper Chitambara also told NewsDay that the closure of the platform will have no effect as most businesses will be on holiday. He said:
<blockquote>
It is not going to affect the market much as most actors in the economy are going to close for the holiday, so I think the time will coincide with annual shutdowns by most businesses.
</blockquote>
This week the official exchange rate was set at US$1:$671.4466 while the parallel market rate was hovering between US$1:$900 and $950. | <a href="https://www.newsday.co.zw/local-news/article/200004997/forex-auction-shutdown-inconsequential">NewsDay</a>

"Closure Of RBZ Forex Auction Inconsequential"

The scheduled <a href="https://zero.pindula.co.zw/there-will-be-no-forever-extensions-for-zeps-motsoaledi/">mass deportation of Zimbabweans living in South Africa in June 2023</a> is anticipated to increase pressure on the infrastructure of this country.
According to the <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Zimbabwe_National_Statistics_Agency_(ZIMSTAT)">Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT)</a>, South Africa is <a href="https://zero.pindula.co.zw/zimstat-says-south-africa-botswana-and-uk-are-the-major-destinations-for-zimbabweans/">officially home to 773 246 Zimbabweans</a> although some estimates put the figure at around three million.
The mass deportation would become a burden to the already failing infrastructure such as roads, electricity and the health sector, The NewsHawks reported quoting economic analyst <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Prosper_Chitambara">Prosper Chitambara</a>. He is cited as saying:
<blockquote>
The government then needs to enhance spending on hard infrastructure for that infrastructure to be able to support the influx of the Zimbabweans that are coming back from South Africa.
Social protection will become critical because most of them will not be able to find meaningful employment so they don’t find themselves living in absolute poverty.
</blockquote>
<h2>Some Context:</h2>
The South African government is scheduled to depart thousands of Zimbabweans after 30 June 2023 following the termination of Zimbabwe Exemption Permits (ZEPs). 
The ZEP programme began when the South African government granted “special dispensation” for Zimbabweans who were in the country illegally, many of them having fled violence and instability in Zimbabwe. 
The South African government replaced Special Dispensation for Zimbabweans with Zimbabwean Special Permits in 2014; then it replaced Zimbabwean Special Permits with ZEPs in 2017.
ZEP holders who are unable to secure a different visa after the grace period elapses will be deported and will pile pressure on the ailing infrastructure.
While the Zimbabwean government says it is ready for mass deportation, Political analyst Rejoice Ngwenya saysZimbabwe does not have the capacity to cater for  Zimbabweans living in South Africa as it is struggling to cater for 1 million jobless graduates in Zimbabwe.
<h2><a href="https://zero.pindula.co.zw/">More Pindula News</a></h2>

Mass Deportation Of Zimbabweans In South Africa Will Increase Pressure On Zimbabwe - Analysts

Economic analyst, <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Prosper_Chitambara">Prosper Chitambara</a> has said the <a href="https://zero.pindula.co.zw/economist-says-govts-proposed-diaspora-bond-looks-attractive/">diaspora bond</a> which was recently proposed by Finance and Economic Development Minister Mthuli Ncube will increase Zimbabwe’s debt.
Ncube told diasporans in New York recently that diasporans investing in the diaspora bond will get a 9% interest rate. He said:
<blockquote>
We want to invest back home, so first thing is that we can invest through a diaspora bond. We are about to issue the diaspora bond in the next few months. We will be getting 9% in terms of interest, which is a very attractive bond. What we can also do is to set up a structure where you rather than sending money every month to relatives. The interest yield can be used to look after your parents and significant others in Zimbabwe. Your investments are very safe in Zimbabwe.
</blockquote>
Prosper Chitambara said the diaspora bond would only worsen the country’s situation. <a href="https://www.newsday.co.zw/local-news/article/200001399/diaspora-bond-can-only-worsen-zims-situation">NewsDay</a> quotes him as saying:
<blockquote>
The diaspora bond increases our debt because bond is a debt instrument. Something that could also be of concern is that our huge external arrears could probably discourage some people from participating in this bond. However, it’s good to tap into the diaspora as a way to mobilise resources to finance critical infrastructure and other requirements at home.
</blockquote>
The <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Reserve_Bank_of_Zimbabwe">Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe</a> reported that the southern African nation received a total of US$797 million in diaspora remittance during the first half of 2022.
In his midterm review statement presented in July 2022, minister <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Mthuli_Ncube">Mthuli Ncube</a> said Zimbabwe owed about US$12 billion to external creditors.
<h2><a href="https://zero.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a></h2>

"The Diaspora Bond Increases Our Debt," Economist Prosper Chitambara

Zimbabwean economist Prosper Chitambara has said the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s Mosi-oa-Tunya gold coins are a government’s attempt at moderating the very high demand for the United States dollar (USD).
The central bank Monday introduced disbursed 2 000 coins to commercial banks. Chitambara told <a href="https://www.newzimbabwe.com/experts-see-little-benefit-for-the-poor-as-rbz-launches-gold-coins-most-people-have-no-money-for-bread-let-alone-for-savings/">NewZimbabwe.com</a>:
<blockquote>
The government is trying to moderate the very high demand for the U.S. dollar because this high demand is not being matched by supply. 
The expectation is that … there will also be moderation in terms of the depreciation of the local currency, which should have some kind of stabilising effect in terms of pricing of goods.
Internationally, gold coins are used in countries such as China, South Africa and Australia to hedge against inflation and as an investment opportunity, although they are not as widely used as currency as envisaged by Zimbabwe’s central bank.
For Zimbabwe, we are in chronic hyperinflation so the expectation is that there will be a huge uptake of these gold coins. However, most Zimbabweans struggle with daily survival and won’t be able to buy them
For the common man, there is not really much to benefit directly from this, especially if you don’t have any excess cash.
Many people have no money for bread, let alone for savings. The expectation is that indirectly it will benefit the ordinary person through moderating the prices.
</blockquote>
According to a statement recently issued by the central bank, any individual or company can buy the coins from authorised outlets such as banks and can keep the coins at a bank or take them home.
 Foreigners can only buy the coins in foreign currency, said the central bank.
Meanwhile, trust in Zimbabwe’s currency is low after people saw their savings wiped out by hyperinflation in 2008 which reached 5 billion%, according to the IMF (231 million per cent according to official statistics).
<h2><a href="https://news.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a></h2>

RBZ Gold Coins: Govt Trying To Moderate Very High Demand For USD - Analyst

Former Finance Minister in the Government of National Unity (GNU), <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Tendai_Biti">Tendai Biti</a> has said the <a href="https://news.pindula.co.zw/2022/06/27/full-text-rbz-increases-bank-policy-rate-from-80-to-200-per-annum/">introduction of gold coins</a> by the <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Reserve_Bank_of_Zimbabwe">Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe</a> was a ploy to “transfer wealth” from the poor to political elites.
Biti speaks when the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) is set to introduce the gold coins that are premised on preserving investors’ value.
The gold coins will be <a href="https://news.pindula.co.zw/2022/07/04/reserve-bank-of-zimbabwe-rbz-announces-gold-coins-features-characteristics-ownership/">available for sale to the public from 25 July 2022</a> in both local currency (ZW$) and United States Dollars (US$) (and other foreign currencies) at a price based on the prevailing international price of gold and the cost of production.
Biti, a senior official in the opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) is sceptical about the move. He said this Monday:
<blockquote>
The gold coin will not solve the structural crises arising from exchange rate collapse, excess money, inflation &amp; unemployment. Instead, it is another gimmick for extraction &amp; arbitrage. They never tire from devising ways of transferring wealth from the poor, the State to elites.
</blockquote>
Meanwhile, some economic analysts have welcomed the decision to introduce gold coins saying they have worked in other economies, therefore, would likely work in Zimbabwe.
Economist Dr Prosper Chitambara said the <a href="https://news.pindula.co.zw/2022/07/04/rbz-gold-coins-have-to-be-made-available-exclusively-in-zimbabwe-dollars-not-us-dollars/">introduction of gold coins was a “noble” idea</a> which has “worked before in other countries.” He added:
<blockquote>
We know that with gold, one can never go wrong.
</blockquote>
Harare-based independent economist Victor Bhoroma <a href="https://news.pindula.co.zw/2022/06/28/investors-warm-up-for-reserve-bank-of-zimbabwes-gold-coins/">commended the central bank’s interventions</a>, saying positive interest rates would reduce both “speculative borrowing in the economy and money supply growth”.
<h2>More: <a class="external text" href="https://zero.pindula.co.zw/download/" rel="nofollow">Pindula News </a>is best enjoyed <a href="https://zero.pindula.co.zw/download/?utm_source=PindulaArticles&amp;utm_campaign=DownloadLink">via the App. Download it here</a></h2>

Gold Coins: They Never Tire Of Devising Ways Of Transferring Wealth From The Poor To Elites - Biti

Prominent economist Prosper Chitambara has warned that the proposed Private Voluntary Organisations (PVO) Amendment Bill will hit the economy hard.
He made the remarks at the weekend during a workshop on the Bill in Kadoma by the Southern African Parliamentary Support Trust (SAPST).
The event was meant to capacitate members of the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Public Service and Social Welfare and other stakeholders on the provisions of the Bill.
The Bill amends the PVO Act and the government says it will curb money laundering and PVOs participation in politics.
It proposes harsh penalties, including jail time of up to one year for perceived offences.
Analysts say the Bill gives the government and the minister responsible for CSOs, and trusts, excessive powers which will enable them to interfere with the operations of these bodies.
Chitambara said the Bill had the potential to disrupt non-governmental organisations’ (NGOs) activities and financing. He said:
<blockquote>
In many countries, NGOs are filling the gaps in public programmes and services that States have failed to perform or provide owing to limited fiscal space among others. It is evident that a successful NGO community is essential for effective and efficient civil society that organises local participation which is essential for sustainable development.
Creating an enabling environment for NGOs to operate is recognised as being critical for the attainment of the Agenda 2030 on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the African Union (AU) Agenda 2063. The role of NGOs is even more important in low-income countries where the fiscal space is limited.
Owing to the huge financing gap in productivity-enhancing and poverty-reduction sectors of the economy such as health, education, social protection, and water and sanitation, the country has had to rely on donor financing from international NGOs and development partners.
</blockquote>
Chitambara said NGOs were an anti-corruption watchdog, hence disruptions of their activities would fuel graft.
He added that the contribution by NGOs to tax revenues ranged from US$4 000 to US$35 000 per month depending on the size of the NGO.  
Chitambara also said a lot of the gains that have been registered as key development indicators have been on account of the partnership between the government and NGOs.
Chitambara said the law would further restrict political and economic freedom in the country.
Law experts say the most worrying thing was that the bill is vague giving room for manipulation by interpreters and law enforcers. 
More: <a href="https://www.newsday.co.zw/2022/03/pvos-amendment-bill-will-hit-zim-hard-economist/">NewsDay Zimbabwe</a>

PVO Bill Will Hit The Economy Hard - Economist

Harare-based economic commentator Prosper Chitambara says the Zimbabwe dollar “experiment” has failed because the fundamentals needed for it to succeed were not in place when it was introduced.
Some of the prerequisites for a functional and stable currency include a strong and independent central bank; high productivity and production, among other things, Chitambara said.
The economist warned Treasury against quantitative easing, that is, printing money, saying this will fuel inflation. <a href="https://twitter.com/ProsperTM/status/1264190662012010497" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Chitambara posted on Twitter</a>:
<blockquote>The Zimbabwe dollar experiment and ‘policy misstep’ was never going to succeed because the right institutions i.e. a strong and independent central bank; high productivity and production; trust and confidence among others were and are not yet in place. Economies are not commanded into prosperity.
It’s a very easy way to run a nominal budget surplus through quantitative easing.
The only problem with quantitative easing when you are a highly consumption-oriented economy in an environment of low productivity is that sooner or later, you will end up in a situation where ‘too much money is chasing too few goods.’</blockquote>
Earlier this month, Finance and Economic Development Minister Mthuli Ncube revealed that the government will resort to “quantitative easing”, among other things, to raise the $18 billion economic stimulus package.
Quantitative Easing is a monetary policy whereby a central bank injects money into an economy. It is generally considered to be an unconventional form of monetary policy.

'Zimbabwe Dollar Experiment Was Doomed From The Start'

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