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The Confederation of Zimbabwe Retailers (CZR) has warned the government against banning the existing multi-currency system and designating the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) as the exclusive legal tender to stabilise the rapidly depreciating local currency, reported <a href="https://www.newsday.co.zw/local-news/article/200033068/no-to-forced-de-dollarisation-retailers">NewsDay</a>.
On September 27, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) devalued the ZiG from 14.1 to 24.3 per United States dollar. 
In the wake of this devaluation, some economic analysts have urged the government to ban the use of the United States dollar and adopt the ZiG as the exclusive currency for trade.
However, in a report addressed to RBZ governor John Mushayavanhu on September 30, CZR president Denford Mutashu warned that enforced de-dollarisation could have “catastrophic consequences” for the economy. Said Mutashu:
<blockquote>
As the CZR, we strongly believe that any attempts to fully de-dollarise at this stage could have catastrophic consequences for both businesses and the broader economy.
A hasty transition will amplify current economic challenges rather than alleviate them.
</blockquote>
Mutashu warned that banning the US dollar for domestic transactions could lead to fuel shortages and severely impact the retail sector, along with other industries. He said:
<blockquote>
Any move to switch the currency of transaction, without adequate reserves and systems in place, will inevitably lead to scarcity, causing significant disruptions across all sectors.
The transportation industry, a critical player in the retail supply chain, would also be affected, driving up logistical costs and causing inflationary pressures.
With the current foreign currency exchange allocation system, there are already challenges in meeting the demands of industries for US dollars.
Full de-dollarisation would exacerbate these shortages as businesses will struggle to secure foreign currency to import essential goods and raw materials.
</blockquote>
Mutashu suggested that, for now, the government should permit the coexistence of both the US dollar and the ZiG to provide businesses and consumers with the flexibility necessary to adapt. He added:
<blockquote>
Gradually, as confidence in the local currency builds, the reliance on the US dollar can be reduced.
</blockquote>
In an interview with NewsDay, Economist Prosper Chitambara said de-dollarisation should be market-driven. He said:
<blockquote>
Well, my thinking is that the issue of de-dollarisation is a very sensitive matter and it is a matter that must be dealt with very circumspectly and also very cautiously.
It must not necessarily be a rushed exercise or a government-decreed exercise, but it must be an inclusive process that is based on a market-determined process that is tied to the attainment of certain key benchmarks around issues of production, issues of reserves, inflation and issues of informality.
</blockquote>
Economist Vince Musewe warned that forcing a local currency will collapse the economy. He said:
<blockquote>
Zimbabweans prefer the US dollar and that is not about to change. Unless there is a drastic change in policymaking, the same problems will continue to be faced by us beyond 2030. Forcing a local currency will collapse the economy.
</blockquote>
The ZiG, or Zimbabwe Gold, was launched in April 2024 and represents the country’s sixth attempt to establish a stable currency in the past 15 years.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Pindula News

Retailers in Zimbabwe are worried about the government changing the currency to only use the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) instead of the US dollar. They say this could have bad effects on the economy, like fuel shortages and higher prices. They want both currencies to be allowed for now, until people trust the ZiG more. Economists also think the change should be gradual and decided by the market, not rushed by the government. They are worried that forcing a new currency could make things worse for the country. The ZiG was started in 2024 as an attempt to make a stable currency.

Retailers Warn Government On Potential Risks Of De-Dollarisation

Economic commentator Gift Mugano has warned the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) against floating the exchange rate without adequate foreign currency reserves.
Mugano said the move by Zimbabwe’s central bank on Friday, 27 September, to liberalise the ZiG currency is “suicidal” adding that the RBZ “just put nail on the ZiG coffin.” He said:
<blockquote>
In our instance, I think we are now at a deeper end. We are in the middle of the storm, that we have adopted a local currency, we do not have enough reserves and we are supposed to liberalise.
So, it’s like committing suicide and again if you don’t liberalise you are still committing suicide again. We need to go back to the drawing board and say how do we address this.
</blockquote>
Instead of liberalising the exchange rate, Mugano suggested that the RBZ should scrap the ZiG, return to USD mono-currency, and introduce the ZiG when the time is ripe – when the right fundamentals are in place.
A Harare-based economist, who declined to be named for professional reasons, told <a href="https://www.businessweekly.co.zw/gold-backed-currency-fails-to-stem-zims-economic-challenges/">Business Weekly</a> that liberalisation and maintaining controls present significant risks, and “there is no easy solution.” Said the economist:
<blockquote>
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is facing a daunting task. Liberalising the foreign exchange market could lead to hyperinflation while maintaining controls could exacerbate shortages and inefficiencies.
The Government must carefully consider the potential consequences of both options.
A poorly executed liberalisation could have disastrous consequences for the economy.
The best solution for Zimbabwe may lie in a gradual and carefully managed approach to liberalisation, combined with targeted measures to address the underlying causes of economic instability.
</blockquote>
On Friday, September 27, the central bank devalued the ZiG by over 40% against the US dollar, changing the exchange rate from 14.1 ZiG per dollar to 24.3 ZiG per dollar.
However, the RBZ has not clarified whether the currency will float freely or if it will continue to control the exchange rate after the devaluation.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Economic expert Mugano warns that Zimbabwe should not float the exchange rate without enough foreign money. He thinks doing this is like killing the ZiG currency. Mugano suggests Zimbabwe should go back to using USD only and bring back the ZiG later when everything is ready. Another economist says liberalizing or controlling the exchange rate both have risks. Zimbabwe needs to be careful and make smart decisions to avoid making things worse. The central bank devalued the ZiG by 40% on September 27, but it's not clear if they will let it float freely or control it.

Floating The ZiG A Dangerous Move, Warns Mugano

Local economist Gift Mugano has warned the government against hastily banning the current multi-currency regime and making the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency the sole legal tender.
Mugano made the comments in response to calls from some sectors to eliminate the use of the United States dollar, particularly as the local currency has experienced rapid devaluation on the parallel market just five months after its introduction. Wrote Mugano:
<blockquote>
I hear repeated calls for the introduction of mono-currency in favour of ZiG (banning USD).
My 2 cents advice is that if GoZ bans the USD it will be the biggest loser because the informal sector will not dump the USD – GoZ will lose tax in USD.
Policy only works in a formal economy. In circumstances where the informal sector is so huge, IT CANNOT WORK!
Where we are, GOZ must let USD work as a mono currency &amp; work on establishing the right fundamentals for the introduction of a local currency which inter alia include:
1. Building a productive &amp; competitive economy
2. Building foreign currency reserves averaging 6 months import cover (US$4.5 billion)
3. Fiscal consolidation – reducing public debt to levels averaging 30% of GDP
4. Stable exchange rates with distortions not exceeding 10%
5. Current account surplus
6. Single digit inflation
7. Establishment of strong institutions with enough teeth to rein corruption &amp; other social ills including fostering rule of law
8. National cohesion – credible elections, elimination of toxic politics, no crackdown of opposition &amp; weaponisation of judiciary
9. Provision of critical enablers such as affordable &amp; reliable electricity, fuel, transport (road, rail &amp; air), ICT, water &amp; sanitation, health and education.
10. Confidence – if we put in place the points I raised from 1 – 9, we will ensure that there is confidence.
This is not a walk in the park. This will not happen overnight. If we are not careful, it will take us decades to have our local currency.
Already, we have travelled 27 years with currency crisis since the Black Friday of 14 November 1997!
The challenge I give to the GoZ is to undertake a comprehensive research focused on the need to understand why our currencies are failing &amp; what needs to be done.
This is critical in view of the fact that we have lost many currencies in recent years!
</blockquote>
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

In simple words, an economist named Gift Mugano is warning the government not to rush into banning the use of different currencies in Zimbabwe. He says if they only allow one currency, the government may lose out on tax money because people in the informal sector will keep using the US dollar. Mugano suggests the government should focus on fixing the economy before introducing a new local currency. He lists things that need to be done before a new currency can be successful. Mugano says it will take a long time and a lot of work to have a stable local currency in Zimbabwe.

Rushing To Ban Multi-Currency Regime Could Backfire, Warns Mugano

Deputy Minister of Finance and Investment Promotion, David Mnangagwa has said the Government is in the process of developing a de-dollarisation roadmap to ensure a smooth transition to a monocurrency.
On 27 October this year, the Government enacted Statutory Instrument 218 of 2023 which extended the duration of the multicurrency regime from 2025 to 2030.
Explaining the extension of the multi-currency regime, Mnangagwa said that de-dollarisation was not going to be an overnight process. He said:
<blockquote>
At every stage, we are consulting with the market which is not extremely big by the way.
So, you will find that all the measures that are in place are to ensure that we have a smooth transition to the Zimbabwean dollar.
The best scenario is that everybody wakes up actually desirous to use the Zimbabwean dollar without having been compelled by law, so to speak. We will allow the market forces to determine.
</blockquote>
Mnangagwa said the extension to 2030 is meant to address the issue of lending and borrowing after reports emerged that banks were refusing to lend money in USD due to the uncertainty. Said Mnangagwa:
<blockquote>
Conversations need to evolve into when we do go into mono-currency, how are we going to grandfather all those who have exposure in as far as loans are concerned, in as far as the pension funds, insurance and also, we have a discussion on free funds.
Again, this has to be a consultative process that encompasses everybody involved.
A common belief would be business does not want mono-currency. I think they are the biggest proponents of wanting to have local currency to increase competitiveness, but it has to be done properly and orderly. So, this is what we are doing as Treasury and as Government.
… there will be a proper blueprint that will be shared after the right consultation.
</blockquote>
Zimbabwe switched to using the US dollar in 2009 after the collapse of the local currency during a period of hyperinflation.
Ten years later, the Government tried to revert to a monocurrency regime but this has not been successful as the Zimbabwe dollar has continued to depreciate alarmingly against other currencies.
Economists estimate that 80% of the local economy is dollarised, with the gap between the official and exchange rates continuing to widen.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/2023/11/18/president-mnangagwa-reverses-the-appointment-of-general-valerio-sibanda-to-zanu-pf-politburo/">Pindula News</a>

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