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Brokerage firms and economists have predicted that the Zimbabwe dollar will officially close the year trading at between $2 000 and $3 200 against the US dollar.
However, monetary authorities are of the view that the local currency is likely to close the year trading at around $1 500.
The auction market was introduced in June 2020 with the Zimbabwe dollar trading at $22.50 per US dollar.
As of 31 January 2023, the Zimbabwe dollar was trading at $801.60 against the US dollar.
In its outlook for 2023, IH Securities suggested that upcoming elections and treasury activities will cause slight disturbances to the currency. It said:
<blockquote>
The interbank rate depreciated at an average weekly rate of 3 percent during the year 2022.
Applying the same rate of depreciation in 2023, the interbank rate will close the year at $3 177 from $690 recorded at the beginning of the year.
From our view, this will be the best-case scenario considering the downside risk of elections.
</blockquote>
Akribos Capital, an investment firm also forecasted a depreciation of the local currency due to elections this year as well as the slowdown in economic growth in leading global economies like China, the US, and the Eurozone. Akribos said:
<blockquote>
… we expect the exchange rate to close Q1,2,3 between the lower and upper bound of $1 500 — 1 800 against the US dollar while inflation hovers above 250 percent.
</blockquote>
However, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, Persistence Gwanyanya, believes the Zimbabwe dollar will be trading at around $1 000 or $1 500 to the US dollar by the end of the year. He told <a href="https://www.businessweekly.co.zw/zwl-to-depreciate-moderately-this-year/">Business Weekly</a>:
<blockquote>
We have not yet felt any political pressure due to the pending elections so the currency should close at around $1 000 to the dollar, but if we experience a shock either from elections or somewhere else, we should see it at around $1 500 per US dollar.
</blockquote>

Pindula News

Zimbabwe Dollar To Officially Close 2023 Trading At $3 200 Against USD - Analysts

A local financial service, IH Securities, has implored the government to ensure the prices of fertilisers come down to enable farmers to take advantage of the rainy season and maximise production.
This comes as prices of fertilisers have sharply increased due to the current Ukraine/Russia conflict, with the two East European countries the main global producers of fertiliser.
According to market watchers, the price of a 50kg bag of fertiliser increased to an average of US$94 by the end of June 2022 compared to US$55 during the previous cropping season. Said IH Securities:
<blockquote>
However, above-normal rainfall for the 2022/23 farming season is being forecasted which could potentially result in increased production.
High fertiliser prices coupled with decreasing commodity prices could discourage farmers.
We believe the government will continue implementing initiatives that reduce the cost of farming so as to encourage higher production.
Assuming this plays out, we forecast increased agriculture production and potentially reduced cereal import bill.
</blockquote>
IH securities, which offers brokerage and advisory services, noted that companies such as Hippo present investment opportunities. It added:
<blockquote>
These are companies with the ability to exercise monopoly and price leadership. We are also attracted to companies with good management and a culture of value creation for shareholders.
Given the anticipated above-normal rainfall in the coming farming season, Hippo presents an investment opportunity.
Dairibord at current levels looks oversold, speaking to an opportunistic buy.
</blockquote>
| <a href="https://www.newzimbabwe.com/govt-urged-to-deal-with-exorbitant-fertiliser-prices/">NewZimbabwe.com</a>

Govt Urged To Intervene On High Fertiliser Prices

Investors are reportedly shocked and stressed by the government’s decision to suspend trading on the ZSE following Friday’s announcement by the<a href="https://news.pindula.co.zw/2020/06/26/breaking-govt-suspends-phone-based-mobile-money-platforms-with-immediate-effect-full-text/"> Information Ministry’s secretary Nick Mangwana that the government was ordering the stock exchange to suspend trading</a> until further notice, New24 reports.
Imara Edwards Securities, MD Thedias Kasaira while speaking to the publication said they were having a hard time explaining to investors what happened:
<blockquote>Clients are asking and we don’t know what to tell them. They want an explanation, but we haven’t been able to give one as we also don’t know the reason.</blockquote>
Head of equities at Harare-based IH Securities, Lloyd Mlotshwa tried to explain why people were opting to invest in the stock market before it was suspended:
<blockquote>People are looking at a hedge against inflation; that’s why they are switching from Zimbabwe dollars to equities. The stock exchange serves as a proxy to parallel market rates</blockquote>
ZSE on Sunday announced trading is suspended until further notice.
More: <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/africa/panicked-investors-inundate-brokers-after-zimbabwe-shuts-bourse-20200629">News24</a>

ZSE Traders Inundated With Calls From “Shocked & Stressed” Investors - Report

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