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Fitch Solutions, a global advisory, has predicted that President Emmerson Mnangagwa and the ruling ZANU PF will likely win in general elections scheduled for August this year.
In its new report, Fitch Solutions said the opposition CCC led by Nelson Chamisa will win key votes in low-income urban areas but ZANU PF will win the overall vote due to “overarching resources” and the advantage of incumbency. The report said:
<blockquote>
At Fitch Solutions, we believe that the incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his ZANU PF party will win the upcoming general elections due to be held by August 2023.
ZANU PF’s overarching resources and influence compared to the opposition CCC, headed by Chamisa, will preserve its support in rural strongholds and win key votes in low-income urban areas.
Central to our belief that ZANU PF will win the elections is the party’s far greater political and economic resources it has to sway the vote in its favour.
</blockquote>
The report also warns of possible unrest in the country in the run-up to and aftermath of the elections. It said:
<blockquote>
Overall, reform momentum under another Mnangagwa presidency will remain weak and will constrain the country’s medium-term macroeconomic outlook.
We see a rising likelihood of unrest in the run-up to and aftermath of the elections, prompting us to revise down the short-term political risk index score from 38.8 to 37.9, below the Sub-Saharan Africa average of 50.1.
</blockquote>
In the aftermath of the 2018 general elections, security forces used live rounds of ammunition to disperse protestors in central Harare.
Six people were shot dead, some were shot in the back while fleeing the mayhem, and several others were injured.
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) declared Mnangagwa the winner, but Chamisa contested the results of the presidential poll in court.
However, the Constitutional Court upheld Mnangagwa’s victory, saying Chamisa failed to provide evidence that the results were rigged.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

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American Credit Rating Agency Predicts Mnangagwa, ZANU PF Victory In 2023 Elections

New York-headquartered global rating firm Fitch Solutions says Zimbabwe will most likely record a surplus for a “third consecutive current account surplus” this year for the first time since 2009. 
A current account surplus means that a country has more exports and incoming payments than imports and outgoing payments to other countries. It is generally deemed a positive because the current account surplus adds to a country’s reserves.
<a href="https://www.sundaymail.co.zw/zim-to-have-surplus-in-2023-fitch">The Sunday Mail</a> reported citing Fitch Solutions’s recent report. Reads part of the report:
<blockquote>
At Fitch Solutions, we anticipate that Zimbabwe will realise a current account surplus, although it will narrow from 3 percent of GDP in 2022 to 2,2 percent of GDP in 2023.
This is testament to the fact that there is something positive happening in the country, and since the Minister of Finance (<a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Mthuli_Ncube">Professor Mthuli Ncube</a>) came into office, prudent economic policies have been put in place. We, however, need to look at ways to further increase the gap in the positive direction, as it translates to more domestic production, which also means more jobs and a bigger local market.
</blockquote>
Fitch Solutions believes the surplus would narrow owing to a combination of strong import demand in the run-up to this year’s harmonised elections and weak global commodity prices.
However, consumer spending is expected to remain strong which will keep import demand robust and lead to a narrower current account surplus.
Zimbabwe’s import bill is expected to reduce as average crude oil prices are projected to drop by 6.9 per cent over the course of 2023. The prices rose sharply in 2022 following <a href="https://zero.pindula.co.zw/ukraines-foreign-minister-putin-launched-full-scale-invasion-well-defend-and-win/">Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February</a>. 
Fuel accounted for 15.6 per cent of imports into Zimbabwe in 2021.
Fitch Solutions believes that the Zimbabwean export sector will be dealt a heavy blow by stagnant gold prices and receding nickel prices, resulting in less revenue.
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Fitch Solutions Says Zimbabwe Will Most Likely Record A Current Account Surplus This Year

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