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International weather forecasters have downgraded predictions for La Niña’s formation and intensity, suggesting that southern Africa may not receive as much rainfall as initially hoped.
Last summer’s El Niño caused severe drought and crop failures, resulting in widespread food aid requirements.
There were high hopes that La Niña would follow, bringing good rains, but forecasts have become increasingly pessimistic.
In its bi-weekly outlook, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a bleak report on Tuesday about La Niña forming in 2024, raising concerns about another poor season for summer grain crops in southern Africa. It said:
<blockquote>
… the chance of a La Niña event developing in the coming months has decreased compared to recent outlooks.
If a La Niña were to develop, it is likely to be relatively weak and short-lived, with all models forecasting neutral values by February.
</blockquote>
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate pattern affecting global weather. ENSO is currently in its neutral phase.
The El Niño phase occurs when ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, leading to increased rainfall in some areas (like the western coast of South America) and droughts in others (like Southern Africa).
La Niña, the opposite phase, is characterised by cooler-than-normal ocean waters in the same region and often brings drier conditions to South America and wetter conditions to Southern Africa.
In the neutral phase, ocean temperatures and weather patterns are closer to average, with no significant warming or cooling.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggests that if La Niña forms, its impact may be limited and could dissipate by February.
Other global forecasters are also adjusting their expectations for La Niña. A US government forecaster recently indicated that the likelihood of La Niña forming has been reduced and, if it does occur, it is expected to last until March.
A weak La Niña or a summer in the neutral zone does not necessarily mean this region will experience another drought.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Pindula News

Weather experts have changed their minds about the rainy season in southern Africa. They thought a weather pattern called La Niña would bring lots of rain, but now they are not so sure. Last year, a different pattern called El Niño caused a terrible drought in the region. If La Niña doesn't bring enough rain, there could be another drought this year. La Niña is when the sea is cooler than usual, leading to dry conditions in southern Africa. But right now, the sea is normal and there is no guarantee of lots of rain. Experts are keeping an eye on the situation and will give updates later.

Downgraded La Niña Forecasts Spark Fears Of Another Drought In Southern Africa

The government has launched a 10-week campaign aimed at eradicating fraudsters who sell counterfeit or substandard inputs to farmers ahead of the 2024/25 farming season.
This operation will span all cities, towns, and business centres, and is expected to end in mid-December depending on the market situation.
In a recent interview with <a href="https://www.herald.co.zw/govt-launches-blitz-on-fraudulent-agro-dealers/">The Herald</a>, Edmore Mtetwa, head of the Seed Services Institute, urged farmers to purchase certified products from registered agro-dealers.
He warned that relying on unscrupulous vendors selling counterfeit or substandard inputs poses significant risks to agricultural success. Said Mtetwa:
<blockquote>
We are collaborating with the Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP) to eliminate bogus agro-dealers.
To ensure the quality and effectiveness of the products, consumers should verify that their suppliers are officially registered and that the products carry the necessary certification labels.
As an institute, we apply various methods to guarantee the eradication of counterfeit seeds from the market by licensing all seed sellers/agro-dealers across the country.
</blockquote>
The Seed Services Institute monitors seed distribution by licensed agro-dealers to ensure compliance with quality standards.
All seeds produced undergo a strict quality assurance process, ensuring they meet minimum certification criteria, including disease-free status and high germination rates.
The National Seed Authority enforces rigorous certification procedures involving variety testing, field inspections, and laboratory testing.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

The government is trying to stop people from selling fake or bad farming products to farmers. They will check all places where farmers buy things. Farmers should buy from real sellers, not tricksters. Police are helping to catch the bad sellers. The government makes sure all seeds are good quality, without diseases and can grow well. This will help farmers have a good harvest. Trustworthy places will have a label to show they are official. It's important to buy from the right place so that the crops grow well.

Government Launches Blitz On Fake Farming Inputs

The government has indicated that the start of the 2024/25 rain season will be delayed, with October—typically the month when rains begin—expected to remain relatively dry.
Minister of Environment, Climate and Wildlife, Sithembiso Nyoni, said that Zimbabwe will experience “normal to above normal rainfall” in 2024/25 starting next month.
According to a post-cabinet update from Minister of Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services, Jenfan Muswere, October is projected to be drier than the long-term average. He said:
<blockquote>
Cabinet also received a brief on the 2024/2025 Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for Zimbabwe as presented by the Minister of Environment, Climate and Wildlife, Honourable Dr Sithembiso Nyoni.
Cabinet would like to advise that during the 2024/2025 summer season the country is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall.
However, the month of October is expected to be drier than the long term average, but from November onwards the forecast is for normal to above normal rainfall.
Farmers and the whole nation are guided to plan accordingly.
</blockquote>
Zimbabwe faced its most severe drought in 40 years during the 2023/24 season, which weather experts linked to El Niño.
The inadequate rainfall from the previous season impacted agricultural yields, putting 20 per cent of the country’s 15 million residents at risk of famine, according to the World Food Programme.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Zimbabwe will have a delayed start to the rainy season in 2024/25, with October being dry. The Minister said there will be normal to above normal rainfall starting next month. Farmers and the whole country are advised to plan ahead. Last year, there was a severe drought which impacted agriculture and put many people at risk of famine. Experts think the drought was caused by El Niño. The government is preparing for the upcoming rainy season to help avoid another food crisis.

Zimbabwe Faces Delayed Start To The 2024/25 Rain Season

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