Downgraded La Niña Forecasts Spark Fears Of Another Drought In Southern Africa
International weather forecasters have downgraded predictions for La Niña’s formation and intensity, suggesting that southern Africa may not receive as much rainfall as initially hoped.
Last summer’s El Niño caused severe drought and crop failures, resulting in widespread food aid requirements.
There were high hopes that La Niña would follow, bringing good rains, but forecasts have become increasingly pessimistic.
In its bi-weekly outlook, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a bleak report on Tuesday about La Niña forming in 2024, raising concerns about another poor season for summer grain crops in southern Africa. It said:
… the chance of a La Niña event developing in the coming months has decreased compared to recent outlooks.
If a La Niña were to develop, it is likely to be relatively weak and short-lived, with all models forecasting neutral values by February.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate pattern affecting global weather. ENSO is currently in its neutral phase.
The El Niño phase occurs when ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, leading to increased rainfall in some areas (like the western coast of South America) and droughts in others (like Southern Africa).
La Niña, the opposite phase, is characterised by cooler-than-normal ocean waters in the same region and often brings drier conditions to South America and wetter conditions to Southern Africa.
In the neutral phase, ocean temperatures and weather patterns are closer to average, with no significant warming or cooling.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggests that if La Niña forms, its impact may be limited and could dissipate by February.
Other global forecasters are also adjusting their expectations for La Niña. A US government forecaster recently indicated that the likelihood of La Niña forming has been reduced and, if it does occur, it is expected to last until March.
A weak La Niña or a summer in the neutral zone does not necessarily mean this region will experience another drought.
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