Expect A Short, Sharp Season - Govt Tells Farmers
The Government has advised farmers to stop planting saying the 2023/24 summer cropping season will be “short and sharp”.
Speaking to The Sunday News, Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Fisheries and Rural Development Permanent Secretary Obert Jiri, however, said that the El Niño weather phenomenon is not as severe as had been anticipated. Said Jiri:
We have witnessed that there has been an increase in rainfall from December 24, with the country experiencing normal and above-normal rainfall. If there was a severe El Niño, we would not be experiencing this.
This year’s El Niño phenomenon is based on a model that is not as severe as we had anticipated.
So, yes, there is El Niño, but it is not as severe. It seems it is weakening, but that does not mean we are out of the woods yet.
We expect that we are going to continue receiving rains, but they might end abruptly at the end of February into early March. We will have a short, sharp season.
Those who had prepared should also consider short-season varieties since we have a short season.
Meteorological Services Department (MSD) head of forecast James Ngoma recently told The Sunday News that the second half of the season has a high probability of rains and cooler days. He said:
Humidity over Zimbabwe tends to increase in December, January and March. Fortunately for Zimbabwe, this is coupled with cloudy and wet conditions.
These rains tend to cool the daytime conditions over the areas they fall on. Thus, the next few months have a high probability of rain and cooler days.
A few dry spells may also result in high daytime temperatures on odd days, but heatwaves are highly unlikely.
So, rainfall is still expected at different intervals in different areas during this period.
It should be noted, however, that the rains may be erratic, especially over natural regions 4 and 5 since we are in an El Niño season.
It is advisable to note that the public should rely more on three-day and ten-day forecasts issued by the MSD.
Climate expert and University of Zimbabwe lecturer Walter Svinurai explained that El Niño is not climate change. He said:
El Niño itself is not climate change as people are describing it. It is a natural phenomenon, but its impacts and occurrences are now worsened by climate change.
Although it is still early to consider this a good season, it is still a sparing drought year and a not full-blown drought per se.
The relationship between El Niño and rainfall over Zimbabwe is misunderstood by many and most people are of the view that El Niño implies drought.
Climate researcher Shingirai Nangombe said that El Nino is not always associated with a drought. Said Nangombe:
A closer analysis of the past 21 El Niño years of Zimbabwe rainfall was undertaken; it is quite interesting to note that out of the 21 El Niño years which occurred in the past 60 years, eight (38 per cent) had above-normal rainfall, while 13 (62 per cent) had below-normal rainfall.
These statistics clearly show that the eight episodes where above-normal rainfall was received during an El Niño episode explain that the El Niño episode and below-normal rainfall is not a one-on-one relationship.
Lastly, it is important to note that the worst meteorological drought was experienced during the 1991-92 summer rainfall season, which was not even an El Niño episode.
The weakening of El Nino, as has been reported, is expected to bring relief to farmers because the weather phenomenon had threatened to cause a severe drought this season.
More: Pindula News
Tags
