Kariba Dam Water Allocation For Electricity Generation Slashed By 47%
The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) has reduced the amount of water allotted for power generation at the Kariba Dam by 47% to 16 billion cubic metres (BCM) from 30 BCM.
In a recent statement, ZRA said that the reduction in the amount of water allotted for power generation in 2024 was necessitated by low water levels in the largest man-made lake and the anticipated normal to below normal 2023/2024 rainfall season in part of Kariba’s catchment area.
Zambia Electricity Supply Authority (ZESCO) and Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC), a ZESA power generation unit, will each receive an allocation of 8 BCM starting this week, down from the current 15 BCM.
ZPC operates the Kariba South Hydroelectric Power Station and ZESCO manages the Kariba North Bank Power Station. Said ZRA:
ZRA hereby announces that it has allocated 16 BCM of water to be shared equally between the two power utilities (ZESCO and ZPC) for their power generation operations at Kariba for the year 2024.
The 2024 water allocation was informed by the 2023/2024 rainfall forecasts made by the Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum-27 and the corresponding downscaled projections by the National Metrological Agencies of Zambia and Zimbabwe, which all showed a high probability of a normal to below normal 2023/2024 rainfall season for the Kariba Lower Catchment and normal to above normal rainfall season for the Kariba Upper Catchment.
This general outlook is highly influenced by the increasing occurrence of El Niño weather conditions, which are expected to significantly negatively impact the rainfall season in southern Africa.
Hydrological simulations carried out by the authority using the Kariba Inflow Forecasting System that is based on satellite rainfall measurements and numerical weather forecasts, providing short-term and seasonal flow forecasts, considering the high likelihood of a below-average rainfall season which, in turn, will likely result in below average inflows into Lake Kariba thereby negatively impacting the volume of water available for power generation during the year 2024.
Accordingly, power utilities have been advised to consider alternative sources of power to complement generation at Kariba to fill any power generation deficit that could arise due to the lower water allocation at Kariba for the year 2024.
The downward revision of the water allocation for 2024 for ZPC and ZESCO negatively will impact power generation in Zimbabwe and Zambia and will most likely result in increased load shedding.
Kariba South Hydroelectric Power Station is Zimbabwe’s most reliable power plant. Hwange Power Station is now very old and two units that were commissioned this year have a combined capacity of 600MW, about a third of the country’s electricity needs.
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